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We consider the branch-length estimation problem on a bifurcating tree: a character evolves along the edges of a binary tree according to a two-state symmetric Markov process, and we seek to recover the edge transition probabilities from repeated observations at the leaves. This problem arises in phylogenetics, and is related to latent tree graphical model inference. In general, the log-likelihood function is non-concave and may admit many critical points. Nevertheless, simple coordinate maximization has been known to perform well in practice, defying the complexity of the likelihood landscape. In this work, we provide the first theoretical guarantee as to why this might be the case. We show that deep inside the Kesten-Stigum reconstruction regime, provided with polynomially many m samples (assuming the tree is balanced), there exists a universal parameter regime (independent of the size of the tree) where the log-likelihood function is strongly concave and smooth with high probability. On this high-probability likelihood landscape event, we show that the standard coordinate maximization algorithm converges exponentially fast to the maximum likelihood estimator, which is within O(1/sqrt(m)) from the true parameter, provided a sufficiently close initial point. 

Abstract Maximum likelihood estimation is among the most widely-used methods for inferring phylogenetic trees from sequence data. This paper solves the problem of computing solutions to the maximum likelihood problem for 3-leaf trees under the 2-state symmetric mutation model (CFN model). Our main result is a closed-form solution to the maximum likelihood problem for unrooted 3-leaf trees, given generic data; this result characterizes all of the ways that a maximum likelihood estimate can fail to exist for generic data and provides theoretical validation for predictions made in Parks and Goldman (Syst Biol 63(5):798–811, 2014). Our proof makes use of both classical tools for studying group-based phylogenetic models such as Hadamard conjugation and reparameterization in terms of Fourier coordinates, as well as more recent results concerning the semi-algebraic constraints of the CFN model. To be able to put these into practice, we also give a complete characterization to test genericity.